Safety & Advisories

Manaslu climbers are racing a storm to the summit, and the forecast is against them

A record 493 permits, two deaths on Sunday, and heavy rain forecast from 24 September. Some teams are climbing, some are waiting, and one has gone…

By Dawa Sherpa · Sep 22, 2026

Manaslu's busiest season on record has run into its worst possible week: a storm system is forecast to bring heavy rain to Nepal from 24 September, two climbers died in an avalanche on Sunday, and hundreds of climbers are deciding whether to go for the summit…

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What the forecast actually says

It is not yet a cyclone, but the rain is coming either way. Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology says a low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal is likely to bring heavy to very heavy rain from Thursday 24 September to Monday 28 September, with…

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Three ways the teams are splitting

Up, wait or leave — and each is a defensible call on the same forecast. This is where the main teams stood on 22 September, according to the Everest Chronicle. The most-watched decision on the mountain was a retreat. Simone Moro, the Italian climber on…

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Why the slope above Camp III worries guides

Because it has already avalanched twice this month, and the second one killed two people. Dhruba Jyoti Guha, a German climber of Indian origin, and his Nepali guide Phursemba Sherpa died when a slab broke above their tent at Camp III on 20 September. Drone…

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What the same storm means for trekkers

If you are starting a trek in central or western Nepal this week, plan for rain, landslides and a day or two of delay. The Manaslu Circuit and the Annapurna region both sit inside the area the meteorologists are most worried about, and the forecast comes a…

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Why are climbers rushing to summit Manaslu?

Because heavy rain and snow are forecast from 24 to 28 September, and the next usable window may not come until after 28 September. Some teams are trying to summit on 23—24 September before the weather arrives.

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Is there a cyclone coming to Nepal?

A low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal is forecast to bring heavy to very heavy rain to Nepal from 24 to 28 September. As of 20 September it had not become a cyclone; if it does, it would be named Arnab.

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How many people are climbing Manaslu this autumn?

Nepal issued 493 climbing permits for Manaslu this autumn, a record, and more than 500 Nepali guides and support staff are working on the mountain.

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Is the Manaslu Circuit trek affected by the storm?

The trekking route is in central Nepal, where heavy rain is forecast from 24 to 28 September, so expect possible landslides and delays in that period. Treks starting in October fall outside the current forecast window. Sources: Everest Chronicle, 21 and 22…

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