Manaslu climbers are racing a storm to the summit, and the forecast is against them

Manaslu’s busiest season on record has run into its worst possible week: a storm system is forecast to bring heavy rain to Nepal from 24 September, two climbers died in an avalanche on Sunday, and hundreds of climbers are deciding whether to go for the summit before the weather closes. Nepal issued 493 climbing permits for the mountain this autumn, a record, and more than 500 Nepali guides and support staff are working alongside them. The teams are now splitting three ways — pushing for a summit on 23 and 24 September, waiting for a second window after 28 September, or going home.

What the forecast actually says

It is not yet a cyclone, but the rain is coming either way. Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology says a low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal is likely to bring heavy to very heavy rain from Thursday 24 September to Monday 28 September, with western and central Nepal most at risk. Its meteorologist Sanjib Adhikari warned of “a possibility of very heavy rainfall in Sudurpaschim and central Nepal”, according to the Kathmandu Post. Manaslu sits in central Nepal.

How much rain is uncertain. Binod Pokharel of Tribhuvan University’s hydrology and meteorology department said forecast models range from more than 400 millimetres to as much as 741 millimetres in places, while stressing that no one yet knows where those totals would fall. If the system does strengthen into a cyclone it would be the first of the 2026 North Indian Ocean season, and would take the name Arnab. Rain in the valleys means heavy snow on an 8,000-metre peak.

The guides are not optimistic about the second window either. “Summit chances look slim in the second weather window too,” mountain guide Abiral Rai told the Everest Chronicle, pointing to snow and rain in the forecast until 28 September.

Three ways the teams are splitting

Up, wait or leave — and each is a defensible call on the same forecast. This is where the main teams stood on 22 September, according to the Everest Chronicle.

The most-watched decision on the mountain was a retreat. Simone Moro, the Italian climber on Manaslu for the seventh time, turned back from Camp III on Saturday when more snow was forecast, and urged the people at base camp to treat safety as the priority, according to ExplorersWeb. Reinhold Messner backed him publicly the following day.

“No amount of money — and no summit — is worth risking a life,” Messner wrote, adding that it applies equally to a guide and to a climber who has paid for the ascent.

Why the slope above Camp III worries guides

Because it has already avalanched twice this month, and the second one killed two people. Dhruba Jyoti Guha, a German climber of Indian origin, and his Nepali guide Phursemba Sherpa died when a slab broke above their tent at Camp III on 20 September. Drone footage taken that afternoon showed only a small area of disturbed snow, and Mingma Gyalje Sherpa, one of the most experienced guides on the mountain, told the Everest Chronicle: “It was a small slab avalanche, but the media made it into bigger news.” The same area had slid on 16 September. We reported the deaths, and the season’s earlier losses, in two climbers died when an avalanche buried their tent at Camp III.

That is the point guides keep making: on Manaslu a small slab is enough. The rope-fixing team’s route above Camp III was delayed by the avalanche, and sections have since been buried by the persistent snow, the Everest Chronicle reports. Fresh snow on top of that is what the next week’s forecast promises. The mountain has form: in 2022 the American ski mountaineer Hilaree Nelson died on Manaslu after being caught in an avalanche while skiing down from the summit.

Days before the weekend’s storm, climbers were still moving up the mountain on their acclimatisation rotations. One of them posted from her second rotation, reaching 6,700 metres:

What the same storm means for trekkers

If you are starting a trek in central or western Nepal this week, plan for rain, landslides and a day or two of delay. The Manaslu Circuit and the Annapurna region both sit inside the area the meteorologists are most worried about, and the forecast comes a month after the August floods that damaged the road approach to Manaslu. The Kathmandu Post’s report warns of a major risk of flooding, landslides and waterlogging. We set out what is and is not open on the circuit in is the Manaslu Circuit affected by the floods.

Why are climbers rushing to summit Manaslu?

Because heavy rain and snow are forecast from 24 to 28 September, and the next usable window may not come until after 28 September. Some teams are trying to summit on 23–24 September before the weather arrives.

Is there a cyclone coming to Nepal?

A low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal is forecast to bring heavy to very heavy rain to Nepal from 24 to 28 September. As of 20 September it had not become a cyclone; if it does, it would be named Arnab.

How many people are climbing Manaslu this autumn?

Nepal issued 493 climbing permits for Manaslu this autumn, a record, and more than 500 Nepali guides and support staff are working on the mountain.

Is the Manaslu Circuit trek affected by the storm?

The trekking route is in central Nepal, where heavy rain is forecast from 24 to 28 September, so expect possible landslides and delays in that period. Treks starting in October fall outside the current forecast window.

Sources: Everest Chronicle, 21 and 22 September 2026; Kathmandu Post, 20 September 2026, reporting Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology; OnlineKhabar and Khabarhub on the system’s possible name and peak day; ExplorersWeb on Simone Moro; Reinhold Messner’s Instagram post of 21 September; NBC News on Hilaree Nelson, 2022. Forecasts change daily — check the latest before travelling.

Cover photo: Thapaliyashreeram via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0). Section photos: Aman Jakhar via Pexels (Pexels licence); Sakshi Patwa via Pexels (Pexels licence); Ashok J Kshetri via Pexels (Pexels licence); Arjay Neyra via Pexels (Pexels licence). Section photos: Aman Jakhar via Pexels (Pexels licence); Giuseppe Paoletti via Pexels (Pexels licence); Ashok J Kshetri via Pexels (Pexels licence); Arjay Neyra via Pexels (Pexels licence).