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Everest's Khumbu Glacier Could Lose 70% of Its Ice by 2100: What a New 2026 Study Means for Trekkers

International scientists have modelled the future of the glacier under Everest — and a warmer monsoon is the only thing slowing the melt.

LR 作者 Laxman Rawal · 2026年6月28日 · 3 分钟阅读 · 更新于 2026年6月26日

The Khumbu Glacier below Mount Everest, Nepal

Every trekker who reaches Everest Base Camp spends their final days walking on a glacier that is quietly disappearing. Now an international team of scientists has put hard numbers on just how fast — and the findings, published in the journal The Cryosphere on 29 May 2026, are both a warning and, unexpectedly, a sliver of hope.

From the trail · Everest

Everest's Khumbu Glacier Could Lose 70% of Its Ice by 2100 — Everest, Nepal

Key facts

New study models the future of the Khumbu Glacier below Everest, published in The Cryosphere on 29 May 2026
Under high emissions, the glacier could lose roughly 70% of its mass by 2100
Under an intermediate scenario, loss is held to about 36% as heavier monsoon snowfall offsets warming
Warming that has already happened commits the glacier to a 10–23% loss this century, whatever we do next
Led by researchers at the universities of Leeds, Bergen and Aarhus

What the scientists found

The Khumbu Glacier is the frozen highway of the Everest trek — the debris-covered river of ice that trekkers cross between Gorak Shep and Base Camp. A team led by Anya Schlich-Davies (University of Leeds) and Ann Rowan (University of Bergen) ran a model of the glacier forward to the year 2100 under different climate pathways. The headline is stark: on a high-emissions track (RCP8.5), the Khumbu loses around 70 percent of its mass. On an intermediate track (RCP4.5), the loss is closer to 36 percent.

Projected Khumbu Glacier mass loss by 2100

Committed (past warming)10–23%

Intermediate · RCP4.5~36%

High emissions · RCP8.5~70%

The monsoon twist

Here is the surprise. Most glacier headlines are uniformly grim, but this study found that the same warming climate is also expected to deliver more precipitation to the high Himalaya — and that extra monsoon snowfall could offset about half of the warming-driven loss under the intermediate scenario. In other words, a wetter monsoon partly insulates the Khumbu. The catch: that protective effect collapses under high emissions, where the heat simply overwhelms any gain in snow. The glacier’s fate, the authors show, hinges far less on snowfall than on how hot the planet gets.

29 May 2026study published in The Cryosphere

~70%worst-case ice loss by 2100

~50%of loss offset by a wetter monsoon (RCP4.5)

10–23%loss already locked in by past warming

Khumbu Glacier: projected mass loss to 2100 by scenario
Scenario	Projected mass loss
Committed (historical warming only)	10–23%
Intermediate emissions (RCP4.5)	~36%
High emissions (RCP8.5)	~70%

What this means for trekkers

You will not see the glacier vanish in your lifetime as a hiker — but you are already walking a different trail than your predecessors did. As debris-covered glaciers thin and retreat, trekkers face longer, looser moraine sections, shifting paths near Gorak Shep, and the slow growth of glacial lakes that carry a real outburst-flood (GLOF) hazard downstream. It is also a reminder of why the season you choose matters: read our explainer on when Nepal’s monsoon starts and ends before you book.

The guide’s takeaway

This is not a reason to skip Everest Base Camp — it is a reason to go with eyes open, and soon. The ice underfoot is part of the story, and a good guide will show you the ablation pools, the moraine walls and the lateral scars that tell you exactly how much the Khumbu has already changed.

See it for yourself

The classic 14-day Everest Base Camp Trek puts you on the Khumbu itself, while the Gokyo Lakes route traverses the giant Ngozumpa glacier and its turquoise melt-lakes. Weighing the options? Compare them in our guide to the Everest region’s main treks.

Source: A. M. Schlich-Davies, A. V. Rowan et al., The Cryosphere, vol. 20, 3151–, 29 May 2026 (DOI: 10.5194/tc-20-3151-2026).

Cover photo: Tom Patterson via Wikimedia Commons (CC0).

来源： The Cryosphere (Copernicus)

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