No Atlantic hurricane yet this year, and what it means for an autumn Caribbean trip

Six named storms have formed in the Atlantic this season and not one has become a hurricane — the latest the first hurricane has ever arrived since satellites started watching in the 1960s. The previous satellite-era record was 11 September, set in both 2002 and 2013. The sixth storm, Fay, was weakening at 65 mph southwest of the Azores this morning, below the 74 mph a hurricane requires, and the National Hurricane Center expects nothing new to form in the next seven days. None of that makes an autumn trip to the Caribbean risk-free, and the reasons why are worth two minutes.

How quiet it has actually been

The storms have come; the hurricanes have not. Named storms need sustained winds of 39 mph; hurricanes need 74. This year the Atlantic has produced a normal-looking list of names that all stopped short of the second threshold, and the latest, Fay, is drifting in the open ocean with no watches or warnings for any coast.

The reason NOAA gives is El Niño. Its forecasters note that moderate or stronger El Niño conditions generally lead to less Atlantic hurricane activity, because they raise the wind shear that tears developing storms apart. Their August update put the odds at 75% for a below-normal season, 20% near-normal and 5% above.

Why a quiet season is not a safe season

Because the count tells you nothing about where the one that does form will go. NOAA is blunt about this in its own outlook: it does not forecast landfalls at all, and it warns that it only takes one hurricane, or even one tropical storm, to cause a disaster in a year with low overall activity. A season can be quiet in total and still put its single strong storm straight through the island you booked.

There is also a lot of season left. The official Atlantic season runs until 30 November, and NOAA treats August to October as the peak. Even NOAA’s lowered range still expects at least two hurricanes this year — which means, if the forecast is right, they are still to come.

What it means if you are booking the Caribbean or Mexico this autumn

It is a reasonable year to go, and the wrong year to skip the insurance. The odds are genuinely better than usual, and October and November trips on a below-normal forecast are a sensible bet. What you should not do is treat a quiet September as a guarantee for the second half of October. Buy cover before a storm is named, not after — most policies stop covering a storm once it becomes a “known event”, and our guide to what travel insurance does not cover explains how that known-event cut-off works.

Have there been any hurricanes in 2026?

Not in the Atlantic as of 21 September 2026. Six named storms have formed — Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard and Fay — and none reached hurricane strength.

Is it safe to travel to the Caribbean in October 2026?

The odds are better than in a typical year, with NOAA forecasting a below-normal season. But the season runs until 30 November and NOAA stresses that a single storm can cause a disaster, so buy insurance before any storm is named.

When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic season officially runs from 1 June to 30 November. NOAA treats August to October as the peak months.

Sources: National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlook and Tropical Storm Fay advisory of 21 September 2026; NOAA Climate Prediction Center Atlantic hurricane outlook update, 6 August 2026; the satellite-era record as reported by weather.com from NOAA and National Hurricane Center data. Storm conditions change quickly — check the National Hurricane Center before travelling.

Cover photo: Airam Vargas via Pexels (Pexels License). Section photos: Mr Pixel via Pexels (Pexels licence); Peter Olexa via Pexels (Pexels licence); Photografia via Pexels (Pexels licence).