Canadians are coming back to the US, but nowhere near the way they used to

Canadians made 2.6 million return trips from the United States in August, 8.8% more than a year earlier and the fifth consecutive month of growth. That is the recovery. The part that matters more is how far there is still to go: road trips were 27.4% below August 2024 and air trips 22.7% below it, according to Statistics Canada. Working backwards from those two comparisons, August 2025 had been roughly a third down on 2024 by car and a quarter down by air.

Growing, from a very low base

A rise of 8.8% sounds like a comeback until you set it against the year it is being compared with. Statistics Canada reports each mode two ways, against last year and against two years ago, and the two readings tell opposite stories.

The last column is our arithmetic, not Statistics Canada’s, derived from the two published comparisons. It shows the depth of the hole: in August 2025, Canadians drove to the US about a third less than they had a year before. Growing 9.9% from there leaves them far short of where they were.

Statistics Canada does not give reasons for the fall or the recovery, and we are not going to supply any. The numbers are enough to establish the shape.

Traffic going the other way

More Americans are heading north, and they are increasingly flying. US residents made 2.4 million trips into Canada in August, up 2.4%. Road trips were almost flat at 1.8 million, up 1.0%, while arrivals by air rose 6.8% to 629,600.

One more movement is worth noticing. Canadian trips home from overseas fell 2.8%, the third monthly decline in a row — so the rise in trips to the US is not part of a general increase in Canadian travel abroad. Trips overseas are falling at the same time as trips south are rising.

What it means if you live on either side

For American border towns, the recovery is real and still well short of 2024. A business that depended on Canadian day-trippers is seeing more of them than last summer, but by car the flow is still more than a quarter below where it was two years ago. For Americans heading north, nothing about the trip has changed except that more of you are flying rather than driving.

For anyone flying within the US this autumn, cross-border air traffic is only a small part of the picture — TSA’s own daily counts are the better guide to which days to avoid.

Are Canadians still travelling to the US?

Yes, and in growing numbers: 2.6 million return trips in August 2026, up 8.8% year on year and the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Car trips remain 27.4% below August 2024.

How far did Canadian travel to the US fall?

From Statistics Canada’s figures, August 2025 was about 34% below August 2024 for car trips and about 25% below for air, by our calculation from the published comparisons.

Are more Americans visiting Canada?

Slightly. US-resident arrivals rose 2.4% to 2.4 million in August 2026, with air arrivals up 6.8% and car trips up 1.0%.

Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, “Leading indicator of international arrivals to Canada, August 2026”, 11 September 2026. All figures are preliminary. The implied 2025-versus-2024 changes are our arithmetic from the published comparisons.

Cover photo: Chris F via Pexels (Pexels License). Section photos: Ali Kazal via Pexels (Pexels licence); Jeffrey Eisen via Pexels (Pexels licence).